Summary of Economic and Quality of Life Indicators for the Upper Valley region of New Hampshire and Vermont
The Tourism, Resiliency, and Indicators for Post-Pandemic Planning (TRIP) project team conducted an analysis of sustainable tourism indicators in the Upper Valley region of New Hampshire and Vermont as part of the USDA-funded multi-state project examining rural gateway community resilience. Using participatory research involving both residents and visitors, we worked closely with stakeholders to identify key local economic, social, and environmental indicators for systematic regional comparisons of prospects for and concerns over tourism and broader economic development. To request a copy of the 30-page dataa report, email nercrd@psu.edu. The summary below distills the main findings from the analysis.
Data Summary
Economy
Employment in the Upper Valley region has experienced long-term structural change shaped by the Great Recession, the COVID-19 pandemic, and shifting industry composition. Total nonfarm employment grew steadily until 2007, declined during the recession, and rebounded strongly between 2014 and 2019 before experiencing a sharp pandemic-related contraction in 2020. Employment has since recovered, though totals remain just below pre-pandemic peaks. Education and health services anchor the regional economy, driven by institutions such as Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center and Dartmouth College, and remain the largest employment sector in Grafton, Merrimack, and Windsor counties. Manufacturing shows continued long-term decline, while professional and business services and leisure and hospitality have expanded since 2000.
Tourism Assets
The Upper Valley’s tourism economy reflects strong assets across counties. Windsor and Grafton counties lead the region in arts, entertainment, and recreation establishments per capita, with Windsor substantially exceeding state, national, and tourism-dependent benchmarks. Accommodation and food service establishments are a notable strength in Grafton—which far surpasses national and tourism-dependent averages—and strong in Windsor and Merrimack as well.
Short-term rental listings have expanded dramatically across the region since 2019, indicating substantial visitor demand.
Quality of Life
The rate of population growth in the Upper Valley has outpaced the nation since just before the pandemic, though overall levels remain below national trends. Merrimack and Grafton counties are the most populous, while Orange has fewer than 30,000 residents. The share of residents aged 25–44—all below the national mean—highlights regional demographic challenges related to workforce sustainability. Educational attainment in the region is comparatively strong: high school completion rates exceed national and tourism-dependent benchmarks in all counties, and bachelor’s degree attainment is particularly high in Grafton (43%) and Windsor (41%).
Income patterns vary with Merrimack leading in median household income, while Grafton leads in per capita income. Orange and Sullivan counties consistently fall below regional, national, and tourism-dependent averages.
Housing and Infrastructure
Housing markets reflect both affordability and pressures associated with tourism and seasonal residency. Median home values are below comparison geographies across the region, and most counties exhibit relatively low rates of rental cost burden—except Sullivan, where more than half of renters pay over 30% of income toward housing. Seasonal homes constitute a significant share of the housing stock, particularly in Grafton (over 25%) and in Sullivan and Windsor (around 20%), highlighting the region’s longstanding appeal as a recreation and second-home market.
Crime
Violent crime rates are low across all counties and below national, New Hampshire–Vermont, and tourism-dependent averages. Windsor is the only county slightly above regional comparators but still shows crime rates well below the U.S. average. Property crime is more variable with Merrimack County showing higher rates relative to other Upper Valley counties and comparison geographies, while others maintain low levels.
Environment
Air quality across the region is strong, with particulate matter levels consistently below national and tourism-dependent averages and trending downward from 2001 to 2020. Parkland resources vary widely. Grafton County is a clear outlier with nearly one-third of its land area protected, positioning it as a major outdoor recreation hub.
Recommendations and Policy Implications
The Upper Valley showcases a diverse set of environmental, social, and economic conditions that together shape its potential for rural tourism development. Economic development strategies should focus on sector diversification, supporting expansion in education and health services while investing in professional and business services infrastructure. Tourism development should be part of a diversified economic development strategy with an overall goal of improving the quality of life for residents and investing in year-round attractions that appeal to visitors and residents from a breadth of incomes and life-stages.
Environmentally, the region contains both nationally significant outdoor recreation assets and smaller, more community-oriented amenities. Grafton County appears to stand out as an anchor for nature-based tourism, with nearly one-third of its land protected in parks, well above regional and national averages.
High proportions of seasonal homes which are most pronounced in Grafton (over 25%) but also significant in Sullivan and Windsor (about 20%), signal the region’s long-standing appeal as a recreational and second-home destination. While these patterns generate economic benefits through seasonal spending, they also place pressures on housing affordability and community cohesion, especially where rental markets are tight. Sullivan County in particular stands out as a point of concern, with over half of renters meeting the criteria for cost burden, suggesting that local residents may face displacement pressures even as the county benefits from its seasonal housing economy. For policymakers, balancing the housing needs of permanent residents with the economic gains from tourism-driven seasonal housing represents a critical challenge for sustaining inclusive community development.
Economically, the region exhibits a blend of strengths and vulnerabilities that directly influence tourism capacity. Education levels are relatively high, particularly in Grafton and Windsor counties, providing a skilled workforce that can support a diversity of enterprises including service industries. However, income disparities are notable: while Grafton and Merrimack enjoy relatively strong income levels, Orange and Sullivan lag behind regional and national benchmarks, with Sullivan showing persistent weaknesses across employment, income, and education indicators. Such variation underscores the need for policies that not only expand tourism and economic development opportunities but also ensure that benefits are broadly shared across counties and communities. The region’s modest but accelerating population growth—particularly during and after the COVID-19 pandemic—suggests increasing demand for recreation and amenity-driven development.
Regional collaboration will be essential to coordinate opportunities and assets for effective tourism marketing efforts, shared workforce development efforts, and complementary economic development approaches across counties.