Publications

Rural COVID-19 Cases Lag Urban Areas but Are Growing Much More Rapidly

NERCRD COVID-19 Issues Brief No. 2020-3: This brief examines data on COVID-19 cases by county type as of April 2020.

Authors: Stephan J. Goetz, Zheng Tian, Claudia Schmidt and Devon Meadowcroft

Publication: NERCRD COVID-19 Issues Brief Series Date Published: April 9, 2020

Tags: COVID-19, COVID-19 Data Briefs

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Farms with Direct to Consumer Sales in the Northeast Region and COVID-19: Some Early Challenges and Responses

NERCRD COVID-19 Issues Brief No. 2020-1. Agricultural producers who sell directly to consumers faced a particular conundrum during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, in that they both tend to be located close to population centers and it is in these densely populated areas where COVID-19 cases were most common. Here we document this issue and discuss resulting challenges for farmers, and their adaptation strategies to date.

Authors: Claudia Schmidt, Zheng Tian, Stephan Goetz, Benjamin Bartley, Brian Moyer, and Sarah Rocker

Publication: NERCRD COVID-19 Issues Brief Series Date Published: April 1, 2020

Tags: COVID-19, COVID-19 Data Briefs

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COVID-19, Networks and Regional Science

NERCRD COVID-19 Issues Brief No. 2020-2: This brief explores network and regional science in the context of the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. It also was published as an essay in the June 2020 newsletter of the North American Regional Science Council (NARSC).

Authors: Stephan J. Goetz

Publication: NERCRD COVID-19 Issues Brief Series Date Published: April 1, 2020

Tags: COVID-19, COVID-19 Data Briefs

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Religiosity and Regional Resilience to Recession

Literature shows that religiosity can provide individual resilience to life shocks as well as regional resilience to disasters caused by natural hazards. Related work has examined the complicated links between religion and economic growth. Yet few, if any, studies examine the role of regional levels of religiosity on a region’s resilience to recession—or how quickly the employment rate returns to pre-recession levels (a common measure of resilience in the economics literature). As the recovery period of the Great Recession cools and economists warn of future economic downturns, all known variables that may be linked with regional resilience are worthy of exploration. Using survey results from the Gosling-Potter Internet Project and General Social Surveys, we applied logarithmic functions to pre- and post-Great Recession employment data for 2,836 U.S. counties. We found a modest and statistically significant association between religious belief and regional resilience to recession. Religiosity was the strongest of sixteen psychosocial variables that we examined in association with the speed of job recovery; despite having negative links with other economic variables. This has particular salience for more rural economies; policy implications are discussed.

Authors: Raphael E. Cuomo, Daniel B. Davis, Stephan J. Goetz, Josh D. Shapiro, Mary L. Walshok

Publication: Risk, Hazards, and Crisis in Public Policy Date Published: March 23, 2020

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Explaining the spatial variation in American life expectancy

Since 1980, average life expectancy in the United States has increased by roughly five years; however, in recent years it has been declining. At the same time, spatial variation in life expectancy has been growing. To explore reasons for this trend, some researchers have focused on morbidity factors, while others have focused on how mortality trends differ by personal characteristics. However, the effect community characteristics may play in expanding the spatial heterogeneity has not yet been fully explored. Using a spatial Durbin error model, we explore how community and demographic factors influence county-level life expectancy in 2014, controlling for life expectancy in 1980 and migration over time, and analyzing men and women separately. We find that community characteristics are important in determining life expectancy and that there may be a role for policy makers in addressing factors that are associated with lower life expectancy in some regions.

Authors: Elizabeth A. Dobis, Heather M. Stephens, Mark Skidmore, Stephan J. Goetz

Publication: Social Science & Medicine Date Published: February 1, 2020

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The Role of Craft Breweries in Expanding (Local) Hop Production

Hop production has expanded dramatically in recent years along with the number of local craft breweries, but to date the relationship between these two phenomena has not been explored systematically. Using a state-level pooled count data model with observations from 2007, 2012, and 2017, we examine the independent lagged effects of breweries on the number of hop farms and acres grown, holding constant fixed effects and key economic and geographic factors. Our results confirm that the number of breweries is associated with more hop production (farms and acres) five years later, while warmer temperatures and higher land prices discourage it. (JEL Classifications: L66, Q11, R30)

Authors: Elizabeth A Dobis, Neil Reid, Claudia Schmidt, Stephan J Goetz

Publication: Journal of Wine Economics Date Published: October 22, 2019

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Problem of Low 2020 Census Participation Will Vary with Sociodemographic Factors and Distance from Metro Areas

With billions of federal grant dollars potentially at stake, every community has a vested interest in ensuring that its residents are accurately counted in the U.S. Decennial Census of Population and Housing. In the 2010 Census, 20.7% of eligible households failed to return their census forms, implying a response rate of only 79.3%. That amounts to about 22 million households not reached in the last census, the number of which not only affects the quality of the census but also may lead businesses and government officials to make inaccurate decisions when targeting specific populations.

Authors: Zheng Tian, Stephan J. Goetz, Charlie French

Publication: Choices Date Published: October 1, 2019

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Innovation, Broadly Measured, and Its Effects on Business and Community Economic Health

A summary of “Firm and Regional Economic Outcomes Associated with a New, Broad Measure of Business Innovation,” by Brian Whitacre, Devon Meadowcroft, and Roberto Gallardo, Entrepreneurship and Regional Development, June 2019, 1–23.

Key Takeaways

• Using a broad definition of innovation allows researchers to compare the
• innovation activity of businesses across different industries and locations, including rural and urban.
• Innovation, even when defined broadly, is positively associated with economic benefits at both the business and the regional level.
• Therefore, future policies should promote innovation activities that are included in the broader measure of innovation described here.

Authors: Kristen Devlin and Stephan J. Goetz

Publication: NERCRD Innovation Issues Brief Series Date Published: June 4, 2019

Tags: Innovation Issues Briefs, rural innovation

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Strengthening Economic Resilience in Appalachia

The economies of many counties and subregions in Appalachia have historically depended on a few dominant industries, such as mining or manufacturing. In recent years, Appalachian coal production has plummeted, resulting in devastating impacts on families, communities, counties, and states. It is critical to understand how coal-impacted communities can transform and diversify their economies and build resilience against future economic shocks.

Authors: Fritz Boettner, Evan Fedorko, Evan Hansen, Stephan J. Goetz, Yicheol Han, Christine Gyovai, Emily Carlson, Alexandria Sentilles

Publication: Appalachian Regional Commission Date Published: February 1, 2019

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Financial Impact of Penn State Extension’s Know Your Numbers Dairy Program

Dairy-related Extension programming is important in many states, but the economic impact of such programming has received little attention. We examined the impact of Know Your Numbers, an educational program offered by the Penn State Extension Dairy Team. Using follow-up evaluation data and the economic impact tool IMPLAN, we estimated that the program had a total financial impact of $9.5 million and an employment impact of 69 jobs in 2014. The overall financial impacts of the Dairy Team, given its abundance of other programming, likely are significantly higher. Our approach for estimating the economic impact of an Extension program can be used by others to understand and demonstrate the value of their work.

Authors: Aaron Berger, Timothy W. Kelsey, Stephan J. Goetz, Robert C. Goodling Jr., Virginia A. Ishler

Publication: Journal of Extension Date Published: February 1, 2019

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